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Science

Climate models can be a useful tool for real-world decision-making. Before using them in this way, however, it is important to understand how scientists make the models, how they are meant to be used, and their strengths and weaknesses. This section will illuminate these topics, and empower you to use data produced by climate models in an informed and risk-aware manner. 

Probable Futures believes that humanity’s understanding of our planet and its systems, and our ability to understand how we can influence those systems, represent perhaps the greatest human achievement. Some of this understanding requires deep expertise, but we have found that everyone can grasp and relate to the most important features of our climate and climate change when given the good tools and useful information.

This section outlines key aspects of our process and provides you with guidance on how the data and the maps on this platform should (and should not) be used. 

Recommended resources for those who want to learn more

  • CORDEX CORE Simulation Framework   /   A deep dive on the regional climate framework employed in Probable Futures maps.
  • McKinsey climate risk and response report   /   Primer on the fundamentals of climate risk with illustrative in-depth case studies.
  • Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene   /   Planetary context for climate risk. This academic publication explores the risk of how near-term warming could create the conditions that prevent stabilization of the climate, ultimately leading to Hothouse Earth.
  • Q&A on how climate models work   /   Primer from Carbon Brief on global climate models that includes other links to climate model basic education and resources
  • Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics   /  This paper describes some of the limitations of climate models when applying them in a business context.
  • TCFD   /   The 2017 TCFD recommendations report outlines a framework for reporting climate-related financial information.
  • P-ROCC 2.0   /   Wellington Management and Woodwell Climate Research Center report, extending their 2019 framework designed to help companies disclose the potential effects of physical risks of climate change on their business. The new framework outlines how companies can share location data that will enhance transparency and help investors make more informed investment decisions.