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Collection: risk
February 22, 2023

Living in climate stability allowed us to build societies, culture, and infrastructure without much consideration of risk because we experienced the same range of climatic outcomes year after year. If we are going to navigate—even flourish—in a changing and unstable climate, everyone will need to equip themselves with a risk mindset. The following works provide an understanding of critical climate change tipping points we need to prevent and point to the mindset we need to avoid the worst outcomes.


Breaking Boundaries: The Science of our Planet

A documentary by Netflix

“If scientists could define our planet’s boundaries, could they also give us the roadmap to guide us out of our current crisis? To show us not only how to avoid collapse, but how to secure our own thriving future on planet earth?”



Our framework to think about risk

“To say that the future is uncertain is very different from saying it is a complete mystery.”


Odds Against Tomorrow

A novel by Nathaniel Rich

“New York City, the near future: Mitchell Zukor, a gifted young mathematician, is hired by a mysterious new financial consulting firm, FutureWorld. The business operates out of a cavernous office in the Empire State Building; Mitchell is employee number two. He is asked to calculate worst-case scenarios in the most intricate detail, and his schemes are sold to corporations to indemnify them against any future disasters. This is the cutting edge of corporate irresponsibility, and business is booming.”


Quantifying the Investing Risks of Climate Change

A podcast by The Green Investor

“Insurance offers you a one-year term that they can change every year. The real risk is what’s not insurable.”

About Collections:

These compilations of literature, film, art, and other media have been thoughtfully selected by the Probable Futures team and our collaborators. The diversity of material included is intended to foster a deeper understanding of our planet and our civilization, challenge conventional thinking, and help us all envision ways to live well in a changing climate and world.