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A journey through the workings of our climate and the patterns that are beginning to change.
Read the climate handbook
Part 1: Heat
1 . 0 Stability
1 . 1 Planetary balance
1 . 2 Workings of heat
1 . 3 A tour of temperature

Part 2: Water
2 . 0 Risk
2 . 1 Workings of water
2 . 2 Extremes
2 . 3 A tour of precipitation

Part 3: Land
3 . 0 Complexity
3 . 1 In a wood
3 . 2 Our inheritance
3 . 3 A tour of drought

Maps that visualize climate outcomes as the earth warms.
Learn more
Maps of temperature Maps of precipitation Maps of dryness Other maps
probable-futures-maps-image-for-navigation-menu
Articles, resources, and reflections about climate and culture.
Read Perspectives
Seasonal essays Ideas Profiles Explainers
Explainers Key climate tipping points and their risks

by Charlotte Venner

At Probable Futures, we believe climate action starts with climate literacy.
Learn about us
About us Team Offerings Climate science Editorial practices In the media Contact us
pf_navigation_about-us

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Perspectives Topic

Markets

Latest
Ideas
Is the future insurable?

Global climate change is shrinking the range of insurability.

by Spencer Glendon, Barney Schauble, Carolyn Kousky

Insurance Markets Risk
Explainers Ideas Profiles Seasonal essays

Topic

Adaptation Extremes Heat Insurance Maps Markets Risk Tipping points

Author

Mirey Atallah Sierra Chapin-Keller Nabig Chaudhry Phil Duffy Spencer Glendon Abid Hussainy Carolyn Kousky Barney Schauble Alison Smart Probable Futures team Charlotte Venner
Latest
Ideas
Is the future insurable?

Global climate change is shrinking the range of insurability.

by Spencer Glendon, Barney Schauble, Carolyn Kousky

Insurance Markets Risk
Seasonal essays

June 20, 2025, 10:42 p.m. ET

Solstice greetings: bonds, bribes, and the practical value of imagination 

Why investors should be placing less emphasis on forecasts and more on dynamic scenarios in a changing climate

by Spencer Glendon

Markets Risk
Seasonal essays

June 20, 2024, 4:51 pm ET

Solstice greetings: market makers

How we might enable governments and businesses to reduce risks and increase the chances that the future is good

by Spencer Glendon

Markets
Seasonal essays

March 20, 2023, 5:24 pm ET

Equinox greetings: hard to believe

Reckoning information with our beliefs

by Spencer Glendon

Markets
Seasonal essays

March 20, 2022, 11:33am ET

Equinox greetings: do you know how to share?

On what we share and what separates us

by Spencer Glendon

Markets Risk
Profiles
“Course feedback suggests that fellows come away with the ability to connect real-world impacts to degrees of warming.”
Educating a climate-ready workforce

Climate careers platform Terra.do prepares professionals to take on climate risk

by Charlotte Venner

Markets

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